This subscriber loss may haunt RIM in coming months

 share price popped by 8% soon after it released its earnings, buoyed by positive sales and earnings surprises. The fact that RIM managed to beat expectations on both fronts is a real achievement. The company has been able to manage the 50% annualized decline in device volume a lot more gracefully than most investors expected. The adjusted EPS loss of $0.22 was much smaller than the $0.36 loss Wall Street expected. However, there is a fly in the ointment the size of a hamster — for the first time ever, the base of BlackBerry subscribers has started shrinking globally. Wall Street expected RIM to add 300,000 new subscribers. Instead, the company lost about a million, with the number of total subscribers dipping from 80 million to 79 million in three months.
[More from BGR: RIM’s first BlackBerry 10 smartphone to be called the ‘Z10′]
The key surprise in RIM’s summer quarter was the company’s ability to expand its subscriber base even as its sales in the United States and the United Kingdom markets tanked. That was one of the factors that underpinned the strong share price rebound during the autumn. And the key surprise in RIM’s November quarter is the new trend of subscriber base decline. What has been crucially important for RIM over the past dark year is the rock solid loyalty of its emerging market customers in South Africa, Nigeria, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brazil. Those markets have enabled RIM to beat subscriber base estimates for four quarters running, even as American and British consumers abandoned the brand.
[More from BGR: RIM beats estimates in Q3, but subscriber base shrinks]
That loyalty may now be wobbling. Nokia (NOK) launched a broad range of very cheap Asha QWERTY models in the beginning of 2012 and has been pushing these models aggressively into Africa and Asia over the past two quarters. Samsung (005930) has moved into bargain basement level with its own Android QWERTY devices dropping to the 5,000 rupee level and below in India. This pincer move may have started to take its toll on RIM.
RIM added 2 million subscribers during the August quarter and then lost 1 million in the November quarter. It’s hard to estimate precise rates, because RIM refuses to give out detailed information but this could represent a swing from 9% annualized growth to 4% annualized decline in just three months.
In a couple of months, RIM will launch a new range of Blackberry models with a spanking new OS and appealing revamp of the Blackberry Messenger software. But the first models coming out will be expensive and aimed at business users. The low-end erosion that the autumn subscriber loss indicates may bite deep during the February and May quarters. What RIM really needs badly is a range of appealing new QWERTY devices priced well below $200 in retail. It is not clear when these devices will arrive. Much hinges now on whether RIM has an aggressive low-end strategy in place or whether the company will chase the dream of reconquering its high-end prominence.
Messaging apps like 2go and WhatsApp are growing at breakneck speed in Africa and Asia — they knit together users of various platforms from iOS to Android to S40 to Blackberry. The subscriber contraction of the November quarter indicates that RIM needs to somehow revive the emerging market interest in BBM very soon. The short squeeze that started in October is still driving RIM’s share price higher. But over the coming weeks we may well see investors begin to ponder the year 2013 subscriber trajectory.

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RIM loses BlackBerry subscribers for first time

 Research In Motion's stock plunged in after-hours trading Thursday after the BlackBerry maker said it plans to change the way it charges fees.
RIM also announced that it lost subscribers for the first time in the latest quarter, as the global number of BlackBerry users dipped to 79 million.
In a rare positive sign, the Canadian company added to its cash position during the quarter as it prepared to launch new smartphones on Jan. 30. The new devices are deemed critical to the company's survival.
RIM's stock initially jumped more than 8 percent in after-hours trading on that news, but then fell $1.48, or 10.4 percent, to $12.65 after RIM said on a conference call that it won't generate as much revenue from telecommunications carriers once it releases the new BlackBerry 10 platform.
RIM is changing the way it charges service fees, putting an important source of revenue at risk. RIM CEO Thorsten Heins said only subscribers who want enhanced security will pay fees under the new system.
"Other subscribers who do not utilize such services are expected to generate less or no service revenue," Heins said. "The mix in level of service fees revenue will change going forward and will be under pressure over the next year during this transition."
RIM's stock had been on a three-month rally that has seen the stock more than double from its lowest level since 2003.
But Mike Walkley, an analyst with Canaccord Genuity, said BlackBerry 10 will change RIM's services revenue model dramatically. He said that instead of getting about $6 per device each month from carriers and users RIM could get as little as zero.
"That's what turned the stock from being up 10 percent to being down 10 percent," Walkley said. "That's been part of our worry. How do they come back with a new platform and get carriers to continue to share the higher revenue —which sounds like they are not going to— and then subsidize the phone to make it affordable for consumers and enterprises."
"People are seeing that the services revenue has a lot of risk to it now with the BlackBerry 10 migration."
Three months ago, RIM had 80 million subscribers. Analysts said the loss of 1 million subscribers was expected. Once coveted symbols of an always-connected lifestyle, BlackBerry phones have lost their luster to Apple's iPhone and phones that run on Google's Android software.
RIM is banking its future on its much-delayed BlackBerry 10 platform, which is meant to offer the multimedia, Internet browsing and apps experience that customers now demand.
"We believe the company has stabilized and will turn the corner in the next year," Heins said. He noted that the company's cash holdings grew by $600 million in the quarter to $2.9 billion, even after the funding of all its restructuring costs. RIM previously announced 5,000 layoffs this year.
Heins said subscribers in North America showed the largest decline, but said there is growth overseas.
Colin Gillis, an analyst with BGC Financial, said before the conference call that the company bought itself more time.
"It doesn't mean (BlackBerry) 10 will gain traction. A lot of people said 10 would be DOA, but I don't think that's going to be the case," he said.
Jefferies analyst Peter Misek also earlier called the results better than expected, noting that RIM added a significant amount of cash. RIM will need the money to advertise the new BlackBerrys and operating system.
Misek also called it a positive development that RIM said there would not be another delay to BlackBerry 10.
"The success or failure of this company will be on BlackBerry 10," Misek said.
RIM posted net income of $14 million, or 3 cents per share for its fiscal third quarter, which ended Dec. 1. That compares with a profit of $265 million, or 51 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago.
The latest figure includes a favorable tax settlement. Excluding that adjustment, RIM lost 22 cents per share. Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting a wider loss of 27 cents.
RIM reported revenue of $2.7 billion, down 47 percent from a year ago.

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RIM shares slump as service revenue, subscriber concerns weigh

Research In Motion shares tumbled more than 10 percent on Thursday after the company reported the first ever decline in its subscriber numbers and outlined plans to transform the way it charges for its BlackBerry services.
RIM, which hopes to revive its fortunes and reinvent itself via the launch of a brand new line of BlackBerry 10 devices next month, caught investors off-guard on its quarterly conference call, when it said it plans to alter its service revenue model - a move that will pressure the high-margin business that accounts for about a third of RIM's sales.
"RIM provided few details regarding the economics of these changes, thus adding a large cloud of uncertainty to the primary driver of its profitability, which we view as especially worrisome given risks already surrounding the firm's massive BlackBerry 10 transition," said Morningstar analyst Brian Colello.
Those subscribers who need enhanced services like advanced security will pay for these services, while those who do not use such services will generate much lower to no service revenue, RIM Chief Executive Thorsten Heins told analysts and investors on a conference call on Thursday.
"I want to be very clear on this. Service revenues are not going away, but our business model and service offerings are going to evolve ... The mix in level of service fees revenue will change going forward and will be under pressure over the next year," cautioned Heins.
The news startled investors, who had earlier in the evening pushed RIM's stock more than 7 percent higher in post-market trading, after the company reported a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and said it boosted its cash cushion ahead of next month's crucial launch of the BlackBerry 10 smartphone.
RIM's shares have for weeks been on a tear as optimism around BB10 has grown. Following RIM's surprise announcement on service revenues, however, the stock ended 9 percent lower at $12.85 in trading after the closing bell.
Analysts also expressed concern about the decline in RIM's subscriber base.
"The early reaction was probably just 'Hey, numbers looked OK, better loss, the cash flow was good' but if you know the company, you're looking at the subscriber base falling off," said Mark McKechnie at Evercore Partners in San Francisco.
CASH BALANCE
One reason the shares rose earlier was RIM managed to build up its cash cushion to $2.9 billion from $2.3 billion in the previous quarter.
Analysts have been keeping a sharp eye on the size of RIM's cash pile, as RIM will need the funds to manufacture and effectively promote BlackBerry 10 in a crowded market.
RIM is counting on the new line to claw back market share lost in recent years to the likes of Apple Inc's iPhone and a slew of devices powered by Google Inc's Android operating system.
"They've done a great job at generating cash," said Raymond James analyst Tavis McCourt in Nashville. "They're certainly in a much better position than they were three or four quarters ago."
The Waterloo, Ontario-based company said it is now testing its BB10 devices with more than 150 carriers - up from about 50 carriers as of the end of October. RIM expects more carriers to come on board ahead of the formal launch of BB10 on January 30.
Positive feedback from developers and carriers around RIM's new BlackBerry 10 devices has buoyed the stock in the last three months. Despite the plunge in RIM's share price on Thursday, the stock has more than doubled in value the last three months.
SMALLER-THAN-EXPECTED LOSS
On an operating basis, RIM fared a little better than Wall Street had expected. It reported a loss of $114 million or 22 cents a share, excluding one-time items. Analysts, on average, had forecast a loss of 35 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
RIM also reported a surprise net profit of $9 million, or 2 cents a share, for its fiscal third quarter ended December 1, on the back of a one-time income tax related gain. That compared with a year-ago profit of $265 million, or 51 cents.
RIM said it shipped 6.9 million smartphones in the quarter, even as its subscriber base fell to about 79 million in the quarter from about 80 million in the period ended September 1.
In recent years, RIM's user base has grown, even as the BlackBerry lost ground in North America and Europe, boosted by gains in emerging markets. While eye opening, the shrinkage was not as bad as some observers expected during the last quarter before the BB10 launch.
"We're encouraged that the subscriber base only declined slightly during a very public transition, and BlackBerry sales were about what we expected," said Morningstar's Colello, who is based in Chicago.

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Nokia to get payments in patent deal with RIM

Struggling Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia has settled its patent dispute with BlackBerry maker Research in Motion in return for payments, as it tries to exploit its trove of technology patents to boost its finances.
Terms of the agreement were confidential, but Nokia said on Friday it included a one-time payment to be booked in the fourth quarter, as well as ongoing fees, all to be paid by RIM.
Nokia is one of the industry's top patent holders, having invested 45 billion euros ($60 billion) in mobile research and development over the past two decades.
It has been trying to make use of that legacy to ensure its survival, amid a fall in sales as well as cash. The Finnish firm is battling to recover lost ground in the lucrative smartphone market to the likes of Apple and Samsung.
The agreement with RIM settles all existing patent litigation between the two companies, Nokia said, adding similar disputes with HTC Corp and ViewSonic still stood.
"This agreement demonstrates Nokia's industry leading patent portfolio and enables us to focus on further licensing opportunities in the mobile communications market," said Paul Melin, Nokia's chief intellectual property officer.
Nokia has earned around 500 million euros a year from patent royalties in key areas of mobile telephony.
Some analysts have said it could earn hundreds of millions more if it can negotiate with more companies successfully.
Analysts estimated its June 2011 settlement with Apple was worth hundreds of millions of euros.

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HTC brushes off Microsoft’s earlier rejection, will reportedly make Windows RT tablets after all

Microsoft (MSFT) may have barred HTC (2498) from participating in the first wave of Windows RT tablets, but that apparently hasn’t stopped the company from gearing up for the next wave. Unnamed sources have told Bloomberg that HTC “is working on a 12-inch device and a 7-inch version” of a Windows RT tablet “that can also make phone calls.” The planned seven-inch tablet, which will be unveiled alongside the 12-inch tablet some time in 2013, will be the first small Windows RT tablet to hit the market and go head-to-head with other popular small tablets such as the Google (GOOG) Nexus 7 and the iPad mini.

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Zurich puts Sandy storm damage claims at $700 million

 Zurich estimates that damage claims relating to tropical storm Sandy, which hit the United States in October, will amount to $700 million in its fourth-quarter earnings.
The Swiss insurer's announcement on Monday also said that it expects $58 million of "reinstatement premiums due on reinsurance covers". The company gave no further explanation. It is due to report quarterly earnings on February 14.
The storm, which killed 132 people in the United States and Canada on October 29, led to power outages, disruptions of public transport and massive damage to infrastructure.
U.S. insurer AIG said it expects post-tax losses of at least $1.3 billion from Superstorm Sandy, while Travelers Companies Inc and Swiss Re estimated their claims burdens at $650 million after tax and $900 million before tax respectively.
Sandy is expected ultimately to be the second-costliest catastrophe in U.S. history, with insured loss estimates as high as $25 billion. The costliest catastrophe was hurricane Katrina in 2005.

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Laclede to double customers in $1 billion deal with Energy Transfer

 Natural gas distributor Laclede Group Inc is buying two utilities from Energy Transfer Equity LP for $1 billion, doubling its customer numbers and boosting its exposure to more stable state-regulated income.
More than 91 percent of Laclede's earnings will come from rate-regulated business after the acquisition of Missouri Gas Energy and New England Gas Co, owned by Energy Transfer's affiliate, Southern Union Co.
About 68 percent of Laclede's operating revenue of $1.12 billion came from its regulated gas distribution business in the year ended September 30.
"With lower ... prices, more and more customers are interested in using natural gas," Chief Executive Suzanne Sitherwood told Reuters. "The other emerging market that is taking place is with natural gas vehicles."
Gas prices have fallen sharply from their peak of more than $13 per million metric British thermal unit (mmBtu) to about $3 now due to vast supplies from shale fields in North America.
This has prompted increased use of gas for heating and power generation. Westport Innovations Inc , General Motors Co , Caterpillar Inc and Ford Motor Co are some of the companies developing technologies to drive the use of the fuel in vehicles.
Laclede too has been working on fueling natural gas vehicles and has received a lot of interest for possible partnerships, Sitherwood said. She did not name the interested parties.
GOOD PRICE FOR ETE
Missouri Gas and New England Gas, which had combined revenue of about $517 million for the year ended September 30, serve more than 500,000 customers in western Missouri and about 50,000 in Massachusetts.
The acquisition, which includes debt of about $20 million, will take Laclede's customer base to 1.2 million, the company said in a statement.
Laclede expects the acquisition to be neutral to its earnings per share in the first full year after close, likely in the third quarter of 2013.
Energy Transfer Partners LP , a unit of Energy Transfer Equity and a party to the deal, said the transaction was part of the company's efforts to divest non-core assets.
The gas utilities passed into Energy Transfer's hands when it bought pipeline operator Southern Union Co last year.
"For the Energy Transfer family, this (deal) compares favorably to our previously modeled $710 million sale estimate," analysts at Robert W. Baird wrote in a note to clients.
St Louis, Missouri-based Laclede said Wells Fargo Bank will provide a $1 billion bridge facility for the purchase.
Laclede shares were down about 2 percent at $39.12 in afternoon trading on Monday on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares of Energy Transfer Equity and Energy Transfer Partners were slightly up.
Wells Fargo Securities LLC advises Laclede, while Credit Suisse Securities LLC is advising Energy Transfer and Southern Union. Moelis & Co gave the fairness opinion to Laclede.

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Sun Life sells U.S. annuity business, shares drop

 Sun Life Financial Inc will sell its U.S. annuity business for $1.35 billion to a firm connected to Guggenheim Partners in a deal that should reduce the exposure of the insurer's earnings to market swings and boost its cash levels.
While the deal could bring long-term benefits to Sun Life, whose earnings have been derailed by wild market swings during recent years, investors pulled the company's shares down by nearly 4 percent as the financial terms fell short of initial expectations.
"The stock's sort of correcting back because the deal isn't quite as big a windfall as I think the market was anticipating," said National Bank financial analyst Peter Routledge.
Delaware Life Holdings, owned by certain Guggenheim clients and shareholders, will rename itself Delaware Life Insurance Co following the cash purchase. Guggenheim will provide investment management services to the new company.
Sun Life, Canada's No. 3 insurer, said last year it would stop selling variable annuities and individual life products in the United States to focus more on group insurance and voluntary benefits.
Variable annuities - retirement products that guarantee the investor a minimum monthly payment - became a source of earnings volatility for Sun Life in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. That is because low interest rates and Canadian accounting rules force insurers to take upfront losses on products that will not come due for years.
"The business makes money, but not enough," said Routledge.
Weak equity markets and low bond yields sent Sun Life's profit down 87.5 percent during the second quarter of 2012 and caused losses during the third and fourth quarters of 2011.
EARNINGS HIT
The deal will cut Sun Life's profit by 22 Canadian cents a share annually and reduce book value by C$950 million ($965 million), the company said in a statement. According to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, Sun Life was expected to earn C$2.53 a share on a net basis in 2013.
The deal has also prompted Sun Life to take a second look at its 2015 financial targets, which include a goal of C$2 billion in operating profit.
In an interview, Sun Life Chief Executive Dean Connor said he would update the market on the targets after the deal closes, which is expected during the second quarter next year.
"I'm not saying we will necessarily reduce them. I'm not saying we will necessarily leave them as they are, because we don't know yet," he said.
The deal is also expected to reduce the company's earnings sensitivity to equity markets by 50 percent and its sensitivity to interest rates by 35 percent, compared with estimates on September 30.
It will raise Sun Life's cash position to C$1.9 billion.
"Over time, we'll redeploy that cash to fund growth," said Connor. He said the growth could include acquisitions on the "smaller end of the spectrum."
Sun Life, which also owns U.S. asset manager MFS Investment Management, is targeting growth in its Asian business.
SHARES DOWN
Sun Life shares, which have outperformed its rivals with a 47 percent year-to-date rise coming into Monday's session, ended down 3.9 percent at C$26.74 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Despite the strong rise this year, the stock still trades at less than half its all-time high set in 2007.
Robert Sedran, an analyst at CIBC World Markets, said in a research note that the earnings and book value reductions were worse than he had expected.
"Moreover, while the decline in the earnings sensitivity to market variables improves the risk-reward profile, we did not view those sensitivities as excessive to begin with," he said.
However, he said the deal will free up time and capital that would otherwise have been engaged in what is essentially a closed business, which is a positive.
Morgan Stanley & Co advised Sun Life on the transaction financials.
Law firm Debevoise & Plimpton LLP was legal adviser to Sun Life, while Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom advised Guggenheim Partners.

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FactSet forecasts second-quarter results largely below estimates, shares fall

 FactSet Research Systems Inc reported lower-than-expected first-quarter revenue, and the financial information provider forecast current-quarter results largely below estimates as banks and brokerages cut costs.
FactSet shares fell 5 percent before the bell on Tuesday.
The company, which provides data to portfolio managers, research analysts and investment bankers, forecast second-quarter earnings of $1.11 to $1.13 per share, on revenue of $212 million and $215 million.
Analysts on average were expecting earnings of $1.13 per share on revenue of $216.3 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
FactSet's financial sector clients are cutting staff and trimming costs to cope with increased regulation and a struggling global economy.
In the United States, financial companies have announced plans to cut 28,000 jobs through the first nine months of this year, compared with 54,000 during the same period in 2011, according to executive placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
FactSet said its net income rose to $49.8 million, or $1.11 per share, in the first quarter, from $45.5 million, or 99 cents per share, a year earlier.
The company earned $1.22 cents per share, excluding items.
Revenue rose 7.5 percent to $211.1 million for the quarter ended November 30.
Analysts on average had expected earnings of $1.11 per share, on revenue of $212.3 million.
FactSet rival Thomson Reuters Corp, the owner of Reuters News, last month reported a 15 percent fall in operating profit for the quarter ended September 30, on declining revenue and higher costs in its division that serves the financial industry.
FactSet's shares closed at $96.39 on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday.

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Jefferies results beat estimates on higher fixed-income revenue

 Jefferies Group Inc reported a higher-than-expected adjusted quarterly profit as the investment bank benefited from higher earnings from its fixed-income unit, and said its business expansion in Asia has started delivering.
The midsized investment bank has been expanding in China and India and recently poached bankers from the Royal Bank of Scotland to expand its business in China.
Jefferies said it also benefited from a pickup in trading across the board in September thanks to fresh stimulus plans from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and that it was gaining market share from larger rivals. The Fed had unveiled a program to purchase $40 billion in mortgage bonds.
The company saw its trading revenue more than double to $293 million from $141 million a year earlier.
"Our competitive position is very strong so across the products within fixed income I think we're gaining market share," Chief Executive Richard Handler said on a post-earnings conference call.
As the first investment bank to report earnings, Jefferies is often viewed as an indicator for larger Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley .
Jefferies, founded in 1962 in Los Angeles to trade large stock orders away from the New York Stock Exchange, agreed last month to be bought by top shareholder Leucadia National Corp for $2.76 billion in stock.
"Combining our company with an extremely well-capitalized parent will allow us to continue to aggressively add value to our clients," Jefferies said in a statement on Tuesday.
Compensation costs at the company remained high with the company paying 59.9 percent of net revenue to employees, in line with previous periods but higher than the 50 percent industry peers generally target.
Net income rose to $72 million, or 31 cents per share, in the fourth quarter from $48 million, or 21 cents per share, a year earlier.
On an adjusted basis, earnings were 35 cents per share.
Analysts had expected the company to earn 32 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Revenue for the quarter rose 39 percent to $769 million, above estimates of $722.6 million. Investment banking revenue rose 8 percent to $283 million.
Jefferies shares, which have risen 12 percent since the Leucadia deal was announced in mid-November, was trading up 2.5 percent at $18.70 on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.

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